by Carlo Montani
PREFACE
The World Stone Report arrives at the 25th yearly Edition, highlighting additional growths in the sector as to production, distribution and consumption: in this period the fundamental figures are quintupled, allowing to overcome the lower stagnation of 1998 and the crisis of 2009, and confirming the state of health of marble and stone, well beyond the critical situation that persists in many countries. We must emphasize these results strongly where we think about the stone demand character as relatively elastic, and the fact that two thirds of the applications relate to building industry, whose conditions are not optimal, particularly in the Western economies.
The sector, in short, has very important cultural and role traditions, that combine with an increasingly remarkable socio-economic survey, which, over the years, has become strategic, in accordance with the unique development capabilities in light since 1964, when it was founded the Federation of European Marble Industry, and defined in programmatic sense ten years after, when the United Nations Organization, moving from stone to start local and regional development policies, was pleased to stress the political moment to act accordingly.
This means that the perspectives for further expansion, coming from historical series extrapolations and corroborated by a very positive market, will be much more valuable to the extent that they are supported at the institutional level, as has already happened in different countries. In this sense, the role of the relationship transcends the dimension purely statistical, because it allows establishment of the political choices and the corporate ones, in a basic cognitive perspective, based on exhaustive marketing research.
This input became important after five years from the 2009 crisis, where the long-term effects continue to be significant in other areas of building aggregate, but were promptly eliminated by stone simultaneously to a new increase in its market share, even if it is relatively contained. This means that the technological and aesthetic features of the natural product are subject to a non-ephemeral appreciation, on which it is possible to promote a policy of industrial growth and investments, either in production or in the field closely connected to the uses development.
The assumption must be extended to technologies, particularly with regard to engineering structures and capital goods, where the Report dedicates extensive and renewed attention, and whose role in the development of marble and stone is absolutely essential, thanks to the decisive contribution of research and Italian machines, as part of a productivity not separated from the security and pursuit of increasingly advanced levels of quality.
Stone growth is tied to the employment one, as the professional component continues to have an important impact on the production and distribution costs. Even apart from the most recent estimates, in the world order of twenty million units, the stone is a phenomenon of obvious socio-economic importance, capable of asserting in quarries, in sawmills, and in the other cutting and processing structures by the dignity of a noble work, which we have to pay attention to, as a real policy, considered as work in the associated life for the common good and progress.
MACRO-ECONOMIC FRAME
The world gross product has reached a new historical peak, overcoming 70 billion dollars (table 1) and confirming the traditional concentration in a relatively limited number of countries: the first fifteen express three-quarters of the total, leaving to the others, which are over two hundred, the figure in balance. The most significant increases have been reached once again from United States and China, whose national income is a third of the Global one, while the most significant adverse changes have been in Europe, involving also Brazil in a relevant amount.
Building activity, after the stagnation that had followed the crisis of 2009, has reversed the trend and registered, in the leading industrial Countries, a significant recovery before the middle of 5.1 per cent (table 2). This, though in China, the first builder country in 2013, has been basically confirmed by the level of the previous year, while in the United States the increase was in double figures, with a volume of a new building, however, very far from historical highs. Significant increases have occurred in Japan and especially in Turkey, where building activity, unlike what happened elsewhere, has survived to a new record.
In the long run there are many countries that have ascribed positive final balances, confirming a building situation that continues to be viscous: as evidenced by the indexes in the reference group the same growth has occurred only for Turkey, followed by South Korea, China, Russia, Poland and Germany (table 3): all States which, for various reasons, have been able to count on economic factors more development-friendly.
With about four million residential units built in 2013, China, despite the tendency to the above mentioned standstill, is the first worldwide manufacturer with a wide lead over Japan, India, Russia and Turkey, which follow in the immediately following ranking positions (table 4). The concentration which has been said about the GDP is confirmed, according to logic, even in the building figures.
The correlation of these figures with the stone consumption are clear: where we build more, the potential uses are proportionately more, although should be weighted with other important factors such as the availability of local resources, the propensity to invest in the product quality and the strength of competition. Not surprisingly, China, India and Turkey are listed at the top of the production and processing of marble and stone, while Japan and Russia are great consumers of imported material, with special reference to finished product.
European building, as above mentioned, works broadly lower in quantitative terms but this is not an insurmountable bottleneck regarding stone use that with regard to per capita level, places it at global and high competitive levels, as in the cases of Belgium or Switzerland. In other words, marble and stone musty rely on the presence of a significant building on the quantity, but at the same time, they can rely on qualitative factors, always able to make a difference. Not surprisingly, even in Brazil the negative effect coming from the reduction of gross product is really non-existent in the stone field, thanks to the export strength, not separated from the high development of the internal consumption, induced by a top quality.
WORLD STONE PRODUCTION
The trend of growth in marbles and stones excavation continued even in 2013, scoring the fourth consecutive increase, which brought the produced quantity not far from 100 million cubic meters with a gross increase in volume, compared to the previous year, on the order of five million, or 5.3 per cent (table 5). The corresponding net of competence is equal to 48.2 million cubic metres, which is 130 million tons.
In its turn, the net production of ready-to-use materials, deducted the wastes of cutting and processing moment, has reached 76.7 million tons, while the commodity breakdown among siliceous, limestone and slate has basically confirmed the previous incidences, which see the prevalence of marble and travertine to the extent of three-fifths on the total (table 6). In fact, even the shares of consumption have stabilized, while in some greater preference for calcareous materials, induced by a still greater availability.
The global amount of the quarry waste and processing has reached 190 million tons: a very large volume, which induces a strong strategic problem, certainly a priority for the sector: that is one of the location, and for what is possible, of the suitable appreciation of these materials.
The widely prevalent share of Asian countries in the world stone production continues to express quantitative increases, thanks to the decisive contribution of India and China, while Europe has recorded a further regression, which in 2013 was equal to one percentage point, compared to the previous year (table 7). We have also to underline the good increase in Latin America, led by Brazilian growth.
The volume of stone products rose to 1,420 million square meters, referring to conventional thickness (cm. 2), with an increase of 70 million towards 2012, which was contributed in a decisive way by the four protagonists of the sector: in order, China, India, Turkey and Brazil (table 8), which were able to express more than 61 percent of the total. On the contrary, the European countries and particularly the Mediterranean ones continued to have a reflexive trend: in the EU, however, the productive decline was still limited to half a million tonnes and 3.3 per cent (table 9).
Concerning Italy, its quarrying production corresponds to a volume of finished product of 76.5 million square meters equivalent, with Tuscany advantaged over Lazio and other Regions (table 10); but at the same time, with remarkable different dimensions than those of exports, where two-thirds of the volume shipped are the prerogative of the Veneto and Tuscany with virtually equal shares.
Globally, the finished product is differentiated between construction and different consumptions in the proportions of three quarters and a quarter: in the first case, with priority targets to floors, special works and covering, and in the second, to the funerary art and furniture (table 11). It should highlight that in the long term the share that has registered the highest growth rate was that of special works, which have contributed significantly to the technological advancement and the spread almost generalized of the numerical control.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
The growth trend of the world stone interchange has continued even in 2013, signing the fourth consecutive annual increase, after the setback which is recorded by the crisis of 2009. More specifically, the global export volumes and the corresponding import have reached 53.3 million tons, with an increase from the previous year that was equal to one and a half million tons, and about three percentage points: in the light of the production datum, increasing by five points, it follows that the development of internal markets has been greater, in front of the international trade.
The input-output model, basic cross-detection tool, highlights how the raw calcareous stone have led to international movements for 15 million tons (table 12), with an increase of 2.6 per cent, while in raw siliceous have reached 13.1 million tons (table 13), corresponding to a rise of 4.5 percent. On average, the progress of raw, consisting of blocks and raw sawn slabs, was 3.5 per cent and has absorbed the 52.7 percent of the total interchange, continuing into the current trend in recent years, growing by about half a point than the detected in 2012, and then registering the new high with 28.1 million tons.
The finished product was the subject of quantitative international flows for the balance share, which accounted for 47.3 percent and 25.2 million tons, showing a growth in absolute amount in the order of half a million tons, while that of raw was essentially double. The simple processed products with interchanges amounting to 2.9 million tonnes (table 14) have regressed of 6.3 per cent, while those with high added value, which are the basic component of currency flows, are attested on the balance sheet of 21.1 million tons (table 15), with a weight of four growth points, that is triple against the volume ascribed in 2012. In further regression, however, the slate processed products, which have closed with exchanges for 1.2 million tons (table 16), and a drop of 6.5 percent.
Globally, the stone volumes input and output flows, at the net of wastes share on the raw volume, a total exchange for about 774 million square meters equivalent at the conventional thickness of cm. 2, with an increase of 20 million in absolute figure (table 17), in an average progress of 3.7 percent. The volume of processed products has iterated the previous final balance, with about two-fifths of the total.
In few words, we must stress that the overall growth of 2013 has been lower than in 2012, but how it further consolidated the recovering with the main contribution of raw and processed products (especially materials with an high value-added), and with further upgrades of the blocks and intended for processing in third countries with competitive cost levels. It is a strategy that involves mainly the big Asian manufacturers, and first China, the greater importer of raw material, with leading shares from Turkey, Egypt and Iran for calcareous, and from Brazil for siliceous.
The international exchange, with his almost constant growth trend, which over the past 25 years, interrupted only in 1998 and in 2009, is an undoubted strength of the stone sector, in the light of a selective application and a subsequent boost to the pursuit of quality, an essential factor on the international market; and at the same time, ensuring a further growth.
DIMENSION OF EXPORT-IMPORT
The analysis of the interchange for large geographic clusters is useful hit it on the nail of the various economic behaviours and to draw meaningful information about the prospects for development in the short and medium term, in a logic of marketing that will transcend the significant statistical language but of the figures.
The balance sheet of the European Union, with 11.4 million exported material (table 18), confirms the previous year result, while import showed supplies for 9.6 million tons (table 19), in the further decrease of half a million after the most conspicuous one of the previous year, emphasizing on the one hand, the tightness of raw products shipments on average qualified as European ones, and on the other hand, the permanence of a substantial stagnation of processing activities in the same Union. European exporters are always stronger in Italy Spain and Portugal, while among buyers the main performances are pursued in Germany, France and Belgium, as well as in Italy.
The movements that affect other European countries have confirmed a substantial marginality condition, either in export (table 20) or in import (table 21), whose quantity flow, in both cases, is in the order of a million tons, with a priority role of Switzerland, mainly in supplies, either of raw or finished products.
An increasingly decisive role in the international exchange of stone is ascribed by the leading sector extra-European Countries, led with increasing advantage from China, India and Turkey, followed from far, but with equally important volumes, by Brazil and Egypt (table 22), while in the purchases, where China did consolidate its historic leadership, there was a good recovery of the United States and the confirmation of South Korea and Taiwan in the back positions (table 23). Some new problems occurred, instead, in export by Iran and in import to Japan.
The other South-East Asian countries, even far from the final balances of the leading protagonists, confirmed an important complementary role, by iterating the export already accounted in 2012 with 1.7 million tons (table 24), while the import is considerably increased to 2.5 million, thanks to purchases especially from Hong Kong, Singapore and Vietnam (table 25), with a significant priority contribution of the processed product.
The world landscape is completed with a number of other countries of the extra-European continents, whose single role can become important, as in the case of shipments from Jordan, Oman and Palestine (table 26) or of import to Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, the latter in strong and growing tension (table 27). Generally speaking, it is possible to remark a relatively marginal contribution to international flows from Africa and Latin America, with the obvious exceptions of Brazil, Egypt and South Africa, while the Asian contribution is once again essential.
Altogether, the synthesis for large aggregates confirms that the extra-European leaders have further developed their own record as exporters, coming to 68.5 percent of the total with a further point gain over the previous year (table 28), and expressing the 55.3 percent in import (table 29), with an increase of nearly five points. It is a further sign of increasing concentration from which sector world exchange continues to be characterized.
STONE EXCHANGE TREND
The long term analysis confirms that the trend of sector development, with natural projections in investments and production, has been operating for 25 years, marked to a significant constancy. In fact, the volume of trade has risen from 9.7 million tons in 1989 to 53.3 million of 2013 (table 30): this, in front of annual constant increments although with a different percentage quantification, with the only exceptions of 1998 and 2008-2009 biennium: the latter, particularly in economic impact of the sector (table 31). After all, over the long period the marble and stone volume object of international trade has grown five times and half with variations substantially identical either in the raw or in the finished product, even if in their sub-aggregates we have to stress more than proportional increases as to calcareous materials and processed products with high added value (table 32).
The allocation of goods remained virtually unchanged compared to the 1989 but in the long term, after the gradual reduction of raw up to the historical minimum of 2007, equal to 42.6 percent of the total, has been ascribed a ten-point recovery up to 52.7 per cent of the previous year (table 33). As regards the division between calcareous and siliceous, 2013 also confirmed the traditional prevalence of marble and travertine, with a rebound although marginal of granite, and a new decline of slate.
In twenty years of activity the geographical distribution of exports shows that seven countries have shipped total volumes for over one million tons, with large advantage places for China, India and Turkey, followed by Italy, Spain and Brazil (table 34); similar but quantitatively dissimilar conditions are detected in imports where eight countries have purchased materials for over one million tons, but with China’s increasingly advantage on other importers, led the United States and South Korea (table 35). We should add, however, that within these “top leaders” are twelve countries which have registered an export decline in 2013, and ten of those that have regressed concerning supplies.
Regarding export we have to put in evidence, regardless of price and values evolution which will be referenced later, that the quantitative shipments of marbles and stones from China decreased for the second consecutive year, with a drop of one and an half million tons compared to the top of 2011, and the loss of almost two percentage points (table 36); on the other hand, are further increased those of major competitors, namely of Turkey, and especially of India, whose growth during the last two years has reached four million tons, reducing almost unpredictably the detachment towards China, dropped to three million tons against the 8.3 million registered in 2011.
In the corresponding field of imports, on the other hand, the further progress of China appears irrepressible, rising of over four million tons during the last biennium and an incoming stream that in 2013 has reached almost 18 million tons, equal to a third of world purchases (table 37), all the more remarkable when compared with the 3.6 million of United States, the second importer country: obviously, in comparison with the export, the dynamics of Chinese interchange, where almost all import consists of raw materials, shows a further strong development of domestic transformation and market.
COMMODITY ANALYSIS
The disaggregated examination of the international economic situation for individual commodity categories in the long term, highlights a very different behaviour of various types, and of leader countries.
In the raw calcareous stone (cod. 25.15), the export continues to record the growing success of Turkey: this country, with 5.7 million tons, came to 38.1 percent of the total, compared with 4.4 percent in 1995, followed with a big distance from Italy and Spain (table 38), whereas imports show the almost monopolistic role of China, strong in purchases for 10.8 million tons, representing 72.3 per cent of overall purchases in foreign markets (table 39).
With regard to the raw siliceous (cod. 25.16), India clinched an absolute majority of the volumes exported, with 6.7 million tons, which is equal to 50.7 per cent (table 40), followed by Brazil with 1.4 million, or 10.7 per cent. Conversely, imports are once again dominated by China, with 6.7 million tons, which is equivalent to 51 per cent of global supplies (table 41), while Taiwan follows in second place, with 1.1 million tons, and with a strong drop of the previous volume.
In simple processed products (cod. 68.01), it being understood that the overall contraction of whom it was said, the priority export is always China, with 1.1 million tons and 37.4 percent of the total (table 42), while Portugal, thanks to an old national tradition, may defend successfully the second place. The import of these materials is mainly European, with Germany and France leading in the respective ranking (table 43).
The commodity typology of greater consistency, especially in value, is that one of processed products with high added value (cod. 68.02), where are the five countries which have exported more than a million tons: in order, China, which dominates the top ranking of its 9.5 million followed with a strong distance by Turkey, India, Italy and Brazil (table 44). Imports, on the contrary, are distributed more diffusely, with priority impacts of United States, South Korea and Saudi Arabia (table 45) almost to underline the growing weight of extra-European countries even at the level of consumption.
It remains to be said about the slate (cod. 68.03), the export of which sees the permanent leadership of Spain, however further reduced, and equal to 38.7 percent of the total, ascribed in 2013, with an almost marginal advantage on China, and on Brazil (table 46). The drop in global shipments of this material is balanced by that of purchases, where the greater incoming flows are, as usual, France, United Kingdom and United States (table 47).
In essence, the decisive flows in economy of the stone international exchange found the main quantity in the raw ones, and a similar contribution in processed products; while the market continues its global expansion: when we think that in 2013 the export of Chinese stones with added value reached a record of 205 Countries from all continents (figure higher than the number of States present actually in the United Nations Organisation), it is easy to understand how marble and stone have become a world heritage site in the true sense of the word, as authors of technological and civil progress which we can consider as universal.
ITALY: LONG-TERM STRATEGY
An old record is never a guarantee of continuity: the case of stone in Italy is a probative evidence. Apart from production involution, which sees its share declining even at European level, while remaining close to a third of the whole volume extracted in the old continent, the trend of Italian international exchange confirms it indisputably: in 2013 the quantitative Italian export, at net of by-products, equal to 3.2 million tons, grew at the rate of one and an half point widely lower than the world one (table 48), with a share of raw rose to 48.7 percent, with the further drop of the finished product. In its turn, the import, which has been declining constantly for seven years with the only exception of 2010, saw the volume of raw, always widely greater, decrease under one million tons (table 49), underlining incisively the permanent crisis of the national processing activities and added value. We can remark that over the last three years the volume of purchases has declined by as much as 27 points.
With regard to the export of processed products, which remains the first balance of Italian stone industry, a partial positive factor may be considered, in front of a marginal quantity variation, the increase in value, and especially in the average price per unit of product, by over seven percentage points (table 50). In particular, the price of the product exported has exceeded for the first time the psychological level of Euro 50 per square metre equivalent (at the conventional thickness of cm. 2), unlike what has happened in other countries, even in Europe.
The disaggregated export trend of the processed products for the 2013 confirms the concentration of two thirds of the turnover in only two regions: Veneto and Tuscany, with global values almost equal, in the order of 500 million Euros each (table 51), and with good progressions above average also in Lombardy and Sicily.
Italian stone export, which has reached a total value of 1874 million Euros, constituting the best result of the last ten years period (table 52), remains lower, especially if compared to that of the best historic years, but towards the global figure of goods and services exported from Italy has continued in the recovery trend opened in 2012, ascribing a share of 4.8 per thousand (anyway, very far from that of 7.5 detected back in 2000). It means that the tendency to growth, except for the marginal recovery of the last two years, is significantly less than that of Italian system, even this is characterized by a critical situation. All of that, is the origin of obvious promotional and distribution relationships, and underlines, especially in stone sector, the urgency of an exhaustive and appropriate institutional support.
Strategically, Italy numbers put in evidence, in addition to the stagnation of the internal market caused by building in critical conditions for too long, an export structure oriented towards the preference for raw stones, which ensures greater levels of profitability to stakeholders but does not allow the development of processing activities, conform to the dynamics of global demand. In summary, the goal of a full recovery of historical financial statements, strategically possible, remains far away.
This situation is not substantially different from the other European countries with an higher stone vocation, as priority regard to Mediterranean ones, and first Spain and Greece, but implies a gradual abdication of leadership in primary advantage of new Asian leaders (China, India, Turkey) and the largest producer and processor of the West (Brazil). The consequences of such deterioration from a strategic perspective and socio-economic sectors, are in all evidence, and an important hint of reflection, firstly for the political and industrial will.
SPAIN: A COMPLEX OBJECTIVE
Spain, the second European stone producer and seventh in the world, highlights a still critical situation, but at the same time enlivened by remarkable hints of recovery, which is supported by some important competitive factors: a very varied production range of marble and granite, the historical “leadership” in the slate field, and an high propensity to investments, particularly in the great transformation, where the Spanish productivity reached very advanced levels, even in non-serial items such as, for example, kitchen worktops, vanities and bathroom furniture.
These factors are completed with the presence of important reserves on most part of the territory, and with a transformation development often intense. The strong drop in domestic building, and in financial credit, caused a proportional decreases in consumption of stone, partially recovered by a good confirmation of export, quantitatively more accentuated as to raw materials, but also notable in processed products, since deliveries and shipping abroad have largely passed, even in 2013, the level of twenty million square meters (thickness conventional cm. 2).
The export situation of Spain in the short period was characterized by a strong recovery, with a turnover of 2013 on the order of 1200 million Euros (table 53), not far from the historical peak of 2008; this, just like what happened in Italy with a market raw share that over the last three years has affected about 50 per cent of volumes (table 54), but at the same time with the wide prevalence of the finished product as to value, where its weight has reached two-thirds of the total. On the other hand, the average price per unit of product did progress well in the shipment of raw stone, while conceding some points in the only 2013, while continued to go down as to granite whose price of which is almost halved compared to 2001; in processed products the decrease was more contained, with a value that, always in the last year, remained around eighty dollars per square meter, slightly higher than the price of slate, whose bending is greater.
The reflective trends of import was much more accentuated, both in the long term than in the short time, concerning mainly the raw material, mirror of an added value policy that penalized the processing activities, like what happened in other leading European countries, while the crisis of the import processed product, although less wide, arises as an effect of the negative situation in the local building industry (table 56). The share, widely a majority of import, however, remains that of raw granite, both in volume and in value (table 57), where it achieved respectively, 43 and 70.2 percent of the total, with average prices down towards 2012 but still more, and in some cases significantly, towards 2001, having reached 39 dollars per square meter equivalent in finished products, equal to half of exports one (Table 58).
In short, the recovery is difficult, but relies on a productive advanced structure and on a fair propensity to investment also in the promotional field, confirmed, although, by the strong presence of Iberian stone industry in many reference trade fairs, and by the competitiveness of certain distribution costs, such as freight rates: not surprisingly, for example, transport from Galicia to Tuscany is competitive compared with the Italian domestic shipping. Similar considerations may be applied to energy costs and for labour, where the ability to make a difference, especially during processing stages, is well known everywhere; also as a factor which may contribute actively to a strategy of recoveries that can rely on the cooperation of business with the political moment, certainly, an useful factor in the international, complex stone comparison.
OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
The productive and distributive leadership of Italy and Spain as part of the old continent does not exclude the presence of other significant sector realities, sometimes of consolidated tradition, and holding some prestigious exclusives. We can indeed say that in Europe the vast majority of countries have a good role in the stone production sector, and a remarkable relief in the international exchange, and obviously, in consumption.
Enhancing local resources of marble and stone is a preferred strategy of Portugal and Greece: in the first case, with advanced facilities of vertical organization, with good political will, cooperation and European leadership in the production and export of simple processed products, especially for external and structural uses; in the second, with the endorsement of high references, borrowed from classical antiquity. Nevertheless, Portuguese and Greek marbles have derived, as a minimum extent substantially positive, potential effects arising from the economic crisis, which in their respective countries has warned, also with a strong financial drop: the contraction of some costs and the greater pressure of the offer had no important effects on export, which remained almost stationary, with some most significant surplus in the processed products of Portugal.
Concerning import, however, we can distinguish like in the past the supplies of Central European countries, notably of manufactured goods, with particular regard to those of Germany, France, and for less quantities, of Holland and Belgium: the latter country, indeed, remains the world-leading per-capita consumption, not only for the good quantity level of its reserves and for its ability to enhance them, but at the same time, for the remarkable transformation of raw materials from abroad. An important role is also paid by import of finished products to the United Kingdom, where it was boosted by the strengthening policy of stone import uses in a country characterized by historical lack of its own production, and thus, of its great transformation.
The European static situation continues even in the Nordic countries, with particular reference to Finland and Norway, where the raw granite typical productions, generally of high quality, have lost some percentage point, with destinations to the Chinese market, where a major part of raw calcareous stone export is addressed from Portugal and Greece too, but quantitatively supplementary, with Italy and Spain shares, of great streams of shipping to China by new developing leaders (Turkey, Egypt and Iran for calcareous; India and Brazil for siliceous).
We have to highlight how Germany, the first European buyer in the sector, with a large majority of processed products, also proposes itself as a good exporting reality thanks to an appreciable production activity, which allows the Federal Republic to occupy the fifth absolute place in the European ranking of quantitative sales. On the other hand, the positions of some Eastern countries, with main reference to Poland and Czech Republic, even concerning the internal consumption, are dropping: not surprisingly, the last year coincided with a strong reduction of Polish purchases of raw materials, and consequently, of the processing activities.
Among the latest members of the European Union, we have to emphasize the largely positive report of Croatia, thanks to growing export of Istria and Dalmatia materials, mostly raw (also for structural use), while the capabilities of countries like Bulgaria and overall Romania remained on the waiting list, although they can rely on considerable technological and chromatic value reserves, especially of marble and other calcareous materials.
PLANET CHINA
During 2013, it was possible to find a further confirmation in the phase of strategic renovation of main strategic options by Chinese economic policy, also in the light of a relative slowdown in development, with rates at a single figure, where it becomes significant, as in the Western countries, also at the level of decimals.
The stone sector was not an exception, with a production level near to 40 million tons, and a quantitative export which has ascribed a second setback after 2012, decreasing to 12.1 million tons (table 59), but still showing a growth of five-and-a-half times in a twenty-year period information (table 60), which remains more than remarkable.
The majority of export share is still a matter of finished products, with 92 percent of the total (table 61), confirming the traditional Chinese vocation for the policy of the added value and the renewed appreciation of foreign markets. On the contrary, value growth is even more appreciable, with a business volume coming to 6.2 billion dollars (table 62), and an increase of about one billion towards 2012, equal to twenty percentage points.
The pursuit of higher profitability levels by Chinese exporters is supported by the further increase in the average price of the products, arrived to 32.4 dollars/sq. meter against the 27.5 dollars of the previous year and the 13 dollars of 2003, the year of greatest promotional contraction of shares (table 63). Anyway, the gap in price compared with Western countries remains competitive, of course, to the benefit of Chinese exports.
The major targets of the finished product were traditional ones, with large advantage for South Korea, Japan and United States, but at the same time with high average price hikes, whose top level continues to register on the American market, while the least, in addition to Korea, are interesting even some European countries, such as Germany and Belgium, where there is a clear availability to import materials liable to buy with particularly favourable conditions (table 64).
The top three importers of Chinese material, mentioned above, express more than a third of the shipments in question (table 65), but this does not mean that the ability to enter of Chinese products has taken absolutely global characters, being spread, in 2013, in a whole range of 205 Countries from every continent, and having highlighted the universality of the application, together with a strong commercial and distribution capacity.
It remains to say that import, unlike export, consists in almost a totalitarian measure of raw materials intended for processing in China, with a total value that in 2013 reached a new high, to the extent of more than 2.9 billion dollars (table 66), and with an increase of more than eleven points from the previous year; but at the same time, with a substantial stagnation of purchasing prices, which is less of a good half, compared with the historical peaks of nineties, concerning supplies.
The major provenances concerned, as before, Turkey and Egypt regarding the calcareous stone products (table 68), as well as India and Brazil in the context of siliceous (table 69): in both cases, about three-fifths of Chinese imports are only get from two sources, which does not exclude a broad range of purchases to balance, but stresses the consolidated priority of business relationship with the other leading Countries of the world stone market.
ASIAN LEADERSHIP
The consolidation of the Asian leadership in the stone field is not only credit of China, because the production and distribution importance of other fundamental realities such as India, Turkey and Iran has acquired an absolute level dimension, without talking about internal consumption of great importance even in countries with lower quarrying capacity as South Korea and Japan.
The priority is given to India, second world force in the sector, whose posting from Chinese exports, indeed, was greatly reduced during the last two years. In particular, Indian shipments of raw granite in 2013 reached a new high, with over 850 million dollars, and a large majority to China (table 70); also those of the finished product have progressed rapidly, approaching two million tons, equal to more than 36 million square meters equivalent, and surpassing 1.1 billion dollars (table 71), while in a non-marginal contraction of price, dropped to a little over 30 dollars: this, with significantly different destinations, but with the United States in position of advantage with respect to European markets (table 72).
Even more impetuous has been the development of Turkey, with a total export of 8.3 million tons, an increase of 18 times in front of 1999, although the average value has ascribed a significant contraction in the order of 13 percentage points (table 73). This is, absolutely, a priority measure in the export of blocks and slabs of marble and travertine to China, which in 2013 reached 4.9 million tons, equal to nearly nine-tenths of the total (table 74); very significant, especially in the context of the value, it was also the contribution of the processed products, and first of all, those exported to the United States and Arabian countries (table 75).
In the context of imports, a specific attention should always be paid to Japan’s market, where raw material purchases have almost cleared, confirming the stagnation of local production activities, by several years (table 76), to the benefit of supply of processed material, in very large Chinese majority (table 77), but equally dropping both in the short and in the long run, also as to the average values per product unit, with the only exception of 2013, bearing the increase of Chinese price of finished products sale (table 78).
Other Asian realities contribute significantly to the world development: not only with other high consumptions of countries such as South Korea, largely tributary of China, like Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore; but above all, with the quarrying and processing production of new protagonists of the interchange, such as Iran, apart from its domestic use excellent tradition and the stasis of its sales in China, or Pakistan, which in 2013 reached one million tons quarried; and with the industrial contribution of transformer countries such as Taiwan, where the sawing capacity per capita ranks around the highest in the world, and to a lesser extent, such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand, including some Gulf States, with priority to Oman, where the local stone resource exploitation is inducing significant investments, not only in the quarrying field.
We should not neglect, finally, the opportunities offered by countries certainly minor, among which we can mention, for example, Bhutan, Maldives and Nepal, for the useful sector integration with India; and internal states, beginning with those of the former Soviet Union, led by a constant development in Kazakhstan, ending with Mongolia and North Korea, which in 2013 recorded some innovative exchange, although marginal, in the Asian stone panorama.
USA: HARD GRADUAL PROGRESS
In the world stone situation both short and long term, the US market has an essential importance, especially for the leader figure of turnover, which is connected to domestic uses coming with a large majority from import. Hence, the interest with which a great part of European, Asian and Latin American exporters are looking to the future opportunities of development, is paid to the commercial relationship with the United States.
In 2013, North American purchases of marbles and stones, made up almost entirely of finished products, have reached a value of 3.1 billion dollars, an increase of 19.5 per cent compared with 2012, which follows those ones of the previous biennium (table 79), but remains far from the primacy of 2007. We have to note that the growth of the last year remains satisfactory even to competing materials: in fact, the import of ceramic tiles for the building industry, come to 2.8 billion dollars, remained lower than that of stone, having reached a flattering 16 percent.
Raw materials supplies have become absolutely minimal, with an overall share that in 2013 decreased under the psychological share of one percent, highlighting, even from this point of view, the lack of North American propensity to invest in the great transformation, with a stronger preference for supplies of finished material. Of course, this does not mean that laboratory activities, in particular in small and medium-sized orders, have been penalized: indeed, could benefit from the recovery, although gradual, not less of what happened for the most important works.
Over four-fifths of the purchases of processed marble and stone, made by the United States during the 2013, originate from just five countries: in order, Brazil, China, Italy, Turkey and India, leaving to the rest of the world only a 15 per cent of the total (table 80), with relatively steady-state shares in recent years, except for the notable Brazilian progress, come to 28 per cent of the total value (table 81).
In the context of smaller supplies, we have to highlight the progressive drop of those coming from contiguous countries, like Canada and Mexico: despite the obvious competitiveness of their transport costs, the buyers preference awarded transoceanic productions, on the one hand for the appreciation of quality, as in the case of Italian deliveries, and the other, for the convenience of shares objectively contained in particular as regards supplies of Turkish marble and travertine, Indian granite and Chinese materials in general.
It should be added that the success more than proportional of Brazil should be attributed to US confirmed preference for the processed siliceous product, particularly with regard to brightly colour granites which often are, like some types of slate, an exclusive almost established on the international markets.
It is important to emphasize that the purchase trend of the US is based on a constant long-term growth, with the only exception, however very wide, the 2008-2009 biennium, in which 44 percent of the previous total was lost, resulting in a no less significant crisis of productive investment (unlike promotional ones); and at the same time, as internal consumption has registered a substantially proportional progression, although affected by stagnating internal productions more accentuated than occurred in import during the years of crisis.
STONE GLOBALIZATION
The dynamics of demand, together with technological development and the speeding up of transport, has reduced the size of the world and has promoted marble and stones in a global perspective, with the consequence that a growing number of countries could enter the market with good potential interest perspective, both in terms of production, both in terms of consumption. Today, there are few realities that to one or another title, do not take part to the worldwide expansion of the sector.
In Africa, with the exception of Egypt, indisputable leader by this time of the continent due to the large flow of shipments of raw marble and travertine to China, while typical siliceous production is not still able to promote its prestigious classical traditions, we have to emphasize the stone economy situation in South Africa, where the granite quarried volumes decreased in light of certain domestic difficulties, but above all to a strict quality policy in oligopolistic key, which has affected the export up to determine, in 2013, a drop of about 50 percent compared with 2008, and over twenty points in those of the previous year (table 83). At the same time, the South African shipping of finished products has greatly increased, both in the short and medium term on the basis of medium prices rather competitive, even if it remained a minority.
Other African countries, with the exception of the Mediterranean ones, where the interchange preserves appreciable volumes both depart and arrival, are still far from making a significant role, although in certain cases could develop some important raw siliceous export flows, as in the case of Mozambique and Zimbabwe.
A low economic situation also characterizes the Latin American countries, with the obvious exception of Brazil, where the same Argentina, once a leader, is reduced to positions substantially marginal, especially in export, and with a domestic production contained, addressed overall to the internal market.
Between the countries of second and third band that gave a significant contribution to the development of the sector, and first to the interchange one, are once more the Asians. Apart from the leading countries, as mentioned earlier, it is useful to refer to contributions, often innovative, but consisting mainly in export, of Jordan and Palestine: in the first case, even at the level of supplies and processing activities, and in the second one, for the high incidence of stone on the gross domestic product, to be placed at the highest levels in the world. Similarly, in Asia, there are other countries that have become significant producers, as happened in Afghanistan, and sometimes even good exporters, as in Kazakhstan.
Globalization has not involved in full measure the prices, in the sense that, especially with regard to finished products, the quotations of buying and selling are naturally differentiated depending on the degrees of competitiveness and industrialization in the countries concerned: referring to the top production and distribution contexts, we must put into light as the most remarkable adaptations of long and short period have taken place in China, Brazil and Turkey, but also in Spain, Italy and Germany, while the Portugal and India prices are decreasing (table 84): this means that the greater or lesser propensity to profitability has not a direct relationship with the general economic development of the countries concerned, but also involves other important variables, starting from investments in production, and in the same promotion too.
DEVELOPMENT IN USE
The uses of marble and stone have made records that in the long run became generalized: in twenty years in the major countries involved there was a substantial growth and sometimes impetuous, as in the case of China, which is a leader also in this field, and where the weight decoupled the volume of 1994 with a balance sheet of 2013 which reached two net million tons (table 85). We have to underline the excellent increases in India, South Korea, Brazil and Turkey, and therefore, all the other countries, with the only exceptions, always related to the extended period of time, of Germany, Italy, Spain, and especially Japan.
In terms of net surface, the world consumption of 2013 referred to about 1.42 billion square meters, equivalent to conventional thickness of cm. 2, with majority shares in China and India, respectively for 410 and for 105 million square meters, alone equal to 36 per cent of world quantity (table 86). In third and fourth position are following United States and Brazil, while the first European country is Italy, which is in sixth place, overtaken in this ranking also by South Korea.
Stone world consumption has doubled compared with 2005, with widely variation indices higher than the world average only for China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and United Kingdom, while in all other countries the growth was lower than the predicted average, although highlighting some good progression in Belgium, France, United States, Taiwan and Switzerland (table 87).
We have still to talk about per capita consumption, where in 2013 the countries capable of overcoming the important goal of one square meter per inhabitant were five: in order, Belgium, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Taiwan and South Korea (table 88): this with a good recovery in the last two years, but with some delay in the medium term, which has penalized more countries such as Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece, characterized by a critical situation with regard to the trend of national income and other fundamental variables.
The most important record about per capita consumption may be considered, in any case, the additional increase of the global figure that in 2013 has reached 226 square meters per 1,000 inhabitants, compared to 215 in the last year and 117 in 2001; in fact, this parameter shows like that of consumption has been a constant trend of global growth, only excepting the yearly stand-by of 2009.
Leading stone producers such as China, India and Brazil, are still in the back of the per-capita ranking, which implies the presence of large and unexpected development potentialities, even as important productive investments and promotions always on the agenda of the countries in question. Moreover, similar terms also exist in several countries of the old Europe, characterized by the presence of an higher tradition, both in construction and other consumption, as in the case of United Kingdom, Germany and the Netherlands, where the relationship tax arises just above the world average, and not far from those obtained with a strong progression in China and Brazil. Concerning Japan, dropped almost at the end of the ranking of major countries, although relying on important alternative uses such as in the funerary art above the world average, it can be said that the regression has been caused by the market saturation and by a significant stagnation in building industry.
MACHINES AND PLANTS
In the macro-aggregate of stone, the satellite industries of a greater economic and strategic importance are the sectors of plants and technology, whose steady progress is the necessary condition to increase the productivity, contain costs, improve quality and optimize security and working conditions. In this field, the contribution of the Italian research and its industrial specialization continues to be a driving force, according to consolidated traditions.
In Europe, the primacy of Italy has never been questioned, although the crisis of 2009 did left several traces, creating the following adjustments, reaching anyway a great recovery in 2011, and finally coming back to productive averages conform to the historical trend: in 2013, the volume exported from Italy was equal to more than 660 thousand tons, up two points from the previous year, which is the fifth-best result of the last 16 years (tab. 89). The import of the fifteen European first countries, on the other hand, has one third of exports and is greatly spread among different buyers, with higher levels in the United Kingdom, Germany and France (tab. 90).
Long-term indices show the biggest percentage growths of European exports in Portugal and Greece, while the import keeps positions substantially, with some better progress in the countries of Northern Europe (tab. 91).
Extending the short-term analysis to Europe of twenty-seven, it is easy to establish, on the understanding that the Italian leadership in export, that the main shipments of machines and plants were directed extra-Community (tab. 92), with a phenomenology that, although in a reduced scale in terms of global quantity, is repeated in import (tab. 93).
The Italian primacy in Europe is naturally confirmed even in the exported value, with a turnover that in 2013 has reached a new high, amounting to over 700 million: a figure that doubles that one of 1998, with an high performance that could be iterated in the average value per product unit, positioned for the first time beyond ten Euro/kg. (tab. 94), and expresses an increase of 60 percent over the period, mainly concentrated in the last biennium, confirming a good economic recovery for the whole stone industry in the world.
Concerning the extra-European side, we have to signal the second consecutive decline of Chinese imports, bearing the relative drop of the stone export, with a penalty moderately stronger for Japanese sales (tab. 95); the good recovery of the purchases from the United States, less focused and less consistent than those of stone producers (tab. 96); the new Indian investment contraction in machines coming from abroad (tab. 97); and the new high of machines import in Turkey, more appreciable because in this case the importing country is remarkable also in the field of technological production (tab. 98).
Italy stressed its traditional leadership even globally, where it leads the export ranking with large advantage over China, Germany and Japan, the only countries which made shipments to over one hundred million dollars (tab. 99), and where has further increased its leading market share, as also happened in Europe (tab. 100), similarly to what was registered as to quantities. It should be added that in several countries the share of Italian technology on the total of the respective imports expresses in terms of an absolute majority, as in Brazil, Turkey and Saudi Arabia (tab. 101), but also in Bulgaria, Greece and Slovenia (table 102), confirming an appreciation by now consolidated in a global market dimension.
TECHNOLOGICAL GOODS
The global expansion in quarrying and processing, and the upgrade of industrial stone structures have brought equally significant growth in consumer goods, with a natural priority in diamond tools and abrasives, whose dynamics are mainly according the logic of domestic supplies, without neglecting the opportunities made possible by international exchange, compatibly with the necessary requirements of productivity, durability and safety.
It is not a surprise, if in Europe the volume of technological goods exported is noticeably grown again in 2013, either for destinations to Union countries, or for what concerns the rest of the world (tab. 103), with main contributions of Germany and Italy. Similar considerations are applied to the import, although in this case the only growth of 2013 has been limited to the provenances from extra-European countries, eliding the decrease, however marginal, of supplies in the Community (tab. 104).
The mid-term examination, for the last four years, highlights a steady increase of total European export, which reached about 1570 million, and focusing for two-thirds of the total in Germany, Italy and Austria (tab. 105). On the opposite side, imports have registered frictional differences, with a turnover for the 2013 in the measure of about 1060 million, which equalled that of the previous year (tab. 106), with priority positions, once again, for purchases of Germany and Italy, but with remarkable extensions to all other countries, in accordance with their respective potential processing activities of marble and stone.
There are cases of countries in which the exchange is quite limited, almost non-existent, but this fact does not mean that their processing activities have been reset, as it may seem considering the final balances of Cyprus, Malta or the Baltic States. On the contrary, it means that also in smaller realities there are the opportunities of domestic purchases and development, in accordance with their limited but consolidated needs.
The disaggregated analysis of capital goods import shows that in this field, unlike what happened in the stone sector, the offensive of third countries, especially from Asia, has not achieved big results, either because the logic of local market typical of consumables, elides the long-range transports, or since the need to ensure the product quality translates into selective purchases by giving preference to materials able to offer guarantees traditionally competitive and more easily controllable, even regarding the opportunity to solve easily and functionally any possible commercial dispute.
Considering the use of abrasive and diamond tools, like what happens to other complementary materials such as blades, mastics and similar, the behaviour of many buyers is determined by the different attention for quality policies, and thus for the decrease, or rather for resetting of tolerances, which promotes an action basically greater than the exchange of capital goods when qualitative priorities prevail, in a service logic in favour of customers, on those more strictly economic. In this sense, it is natural that the foreign trade of consumables has more possibilities of expansion, as also happened in 2013, in European countries characterised by a greater attention to the problem of the total quality, which became really universal in stone sector too.
IMAGE PROMOTION AND EXPANSION
The success factors which are able to better enhance the positive economic trends, or elide the effects of negative ones, have an important role also in the stone sector, whose demand, of course not particularly strict, is more sensitive than other motivational elements, not excluding certain psychological reasons. Some of these factors, such as the product quality and its relationship with the price, are present in all sectors, and the marble and stone are not an exception, as highlighted by recent research investigations from Latin America, emphasizing the importance fully shared with the new materials policy, able to satisfy a wider range of aesthetic and new markets in order to prevent the risk always latent of saturation (tab. 107).
An importance not so totalitarian seems to be reserved, however, to diversification, and especially to the image: this is a bottleneck that the most advanced marketing theory cannot accept, but helps to explain some promotional delays still present in stone world system. A connection quite automatic must be underlined in the cooperation, and particularly in the investments, where a logical preference is belonging to an implementation of the productivity through innovation and technology, while a correct promotion effort would be considered indispensable by no more than a third of operators (tab. 108).
It is logical to assume that the solution of these problems in a more systematic and modern key would be able to give greater impetus to the development of stone industry, still supported by extrapolation of historical series and forecasts of growth of world demand, which suggests the overcoming of 100 million tons, net of wastes, in the perspective of 2020, with consumption not far from two billion square meters equivalent (table 109). This development forecast has to be seen in a context of recovering the market share of stone, slow but continuous, even for the major competing materials, such as ceramic and vitrified stoneware (table 110).
The presumption is further supported by the demographic growth forecasts in the medium and long term, according to which the world’s population should reach 8.2 billion people in 2025, and nine billion in 2050, with a large absolute majority in Asia (table 111). In fact, these increases will lead to a proportional increase in the construction industry, including quality, in particular regarding the finishing materials: hence, a specific input to the stone sector, even in the name of the promotion, not only on traditional markets, but also on new ones: among them, may be that important opportunities of development emerge, although in the long run, for those in Africa.
In current terms, it is interesting to see how the share of the Asian population is equal to that of the stone market, and especially of consumption, although in per capita detail, as mentioned above, glaring disproportions are still remaining in the sector system. There are good reasons to avoid a dangerous promotional concentration in few developed countries, especially from the West, while considering the need for a correct protection of the sector employment, which is important in their economy too.
The political will and the industrial choices must pay a special attention to these assessments, with a more necessary cooperation with finance and credit, indispensable to guarantee a better support for all types of investments, and with the labour union forces, equally useful in pursuing the objectives of growth, and obvious general utility.
WORLD TURNOVER
The last crucial parameter that needs a specific attention to regarding the balance sheet in the industry is turnover, whose propulsive role in view of further investments for the development is quite evident. Concerning that, the only available information is about the interchange able to assess the turnover of domestic markets, in light of estimates about internal consumption in the various countries.
In 2013, the foreign trade turnover has reached more than 22 billion dollars, with an increase of 14.9 percent over the previous year (table 112), and an active differential of about ten points against the already detected for the quantity: a flattering result with no doubts, confirming the good moment gained by the industry after the crisis of 2009. A decisive contribution came into this field by seven leading countries, with major implications, in order, to China, Italy, Turkey, India, Brazil, Spain and Portugal: so, with some significant difference compared with quantitative ranking, induced by different level of medium prices, and before that, from a different “mix” of production and deliveries that supports exporting countries of processed product, penalizing those most inclined to shipments of raw. In particular, it is necessary to underline the second place kept by Italian exporters, although with a lower difference on the Turkish and Indian values.
Since 2001, the overall world turnover increase was more than four times on the initial level, with higher progressions in China, Brazil, India, and especially in Turkey, where its value is multiplied by ten, while in European countries the growth has been far more restrained (tab. 113). It follows that the market shares have been widening for the four non-European leader countries with a maximum increase in China, up from 17.4 percent in 2001 to 27.9 percent in 2013, while are particularly accentuated the drops of Italy and Spain, where the dimensions of export shares have been reduced by two thirds (table 114).
According to the figures presented and likely share of national consumption of internal materials, we have to stress that the total turnover of the sector must be placed in the order of 40 billion dollars: all that considering the natural increase of price for materials subjected to the international exchange, borne heavily on more incidences of transport and brokerages, and characterized by high levels of quality. The contribution of this turnover to the growth of marbles and stones in the world, including third countries, arrived to give about 30 percent of the total, underlining the important propulsive role of the development, first in the socio-economic field.
The satellite industries, starting with that of machines and plants, has a very significant turnover: the available information in the world, concerning the specific interchange, allow a prudential evaluation for 2013 of about three billion dollars, a third of which has to be attributed to the Italian exports of mechanical plants and technologies. This is a value very important, both in absolute figure, whether in relationship to stone turnover, which in relation to exposed figures reaches 7.5 percent: an important investment share is emerging from these data, but not quite enough, especially in the mature economies, to cover the yearly official depreciations, and to make rational choices in view of a rapid, necessary technological progress.
CONCLUSION
The volume of marbles and stones processed in the contemporary world during the last sixty years is higher than that of all previous usages that had succeeded for about 10 thousand years, ever since it was founded in Jericho, the first city where stone was used, as from its historical memory. The assumption, proposed by the Earth Sciences Department of Siena University (Italy), synthesizes incisively the most recent development, due to renewed confidence in the natural product from the most advanced design, but at the same time, such an unprecedented technical progress, and yet capable to enhance the qualities of creativity and imagination, typical of the sector work.
It is an important starting point, from which to move further expansion strategies in priority care of political will, and at the same time, as an initiative of a modern entrepreneurial moment, always ready to face the risk of the stone industry, especially in the quarries, but still far from international reports of an effective cooperative cohesion. In fact, both globally and in the European context, the associative activities appear adapted to the good intentions, which have not followed, usually, by adequate investment and promotion initiatives.
At a half-century since the advent of the diamond in the stone processing, and after twenty years from the general spread of the computerized numerical control, the times are really ready to give the industrial sector a new industrial dimension, capable of pursuing a great development, with a recovery of the great works that can co-exist with the artisan component, guardian of expressive and aesthetic values always modern. Our world needs a common awareness of the objectives and means, not only financial, indispensable to reach them, and before that, needs a real conviction of the irreversible nature acquired by globalization.
The new great stone protagonists that belong not casually to the extra-European world, not without demanding adjustments, have understood the strategic role of marbles and stones, initiating and strengthening profitable collaborative relationships, although at an operational level. Elsewhere, there are similar examples, but it remains always evident the need to overcome the episodic and taper the preservation attempt, but understandably, more frequent in countries of major sector traditions, intended to reverse in the logic of the world market.
The stone civilization, after having marked the essential moments of a long technical, economic and human growth, has all the cards in order to preside over further successes, and first of all, that of a strong ecological compliance, far from punitive policies for the quarries, sawmills and workshops that occur in certain contexts, especially in the West, unable to understand how every site, since the time of stilts, has coincided with a change in aesthetics of environment. In this sense, programming efforts are needed to make awareness of choices, according to main national or regional interests, but considering, unless motivated exceptions, the priority for socio-economic problems and for manpower employment.
The multiplier effect is just around the corner also for marble and stone, but it will be much more constructive and durable, as it will be supported by a genuine and effective cooperation.
Critical Appendix
Statistical instruments placed at the basis of the Report, like those used in previous editions, come from a complex spectrum research, based entirely on official sources regarding the interchange, while productions and consumptions are assessed in the light of reasoned estimates (in some cases with the active cooperation of local Subjects). This is in the context of homogeneous criteria for detection, processing and interpretation, in order to ensure the comparable character of data and their aggregations.
The sources from which they are derived, with every possible update, as preparatory data of macro-economic character, are those of the main international Bodies, while the information on the construction situation in leading industrial Countries is of similar origin, with some control by Italian ANCE (National Association of Building Constructors) .
With regard to quarrying production, Europe figures come from the processing of previous unofficial estimates of Eurostat source, calibrated according to the exchange of materials and technologies, while those of other leading countries, on the understanding that the form shown, have been usefully compared with ratings from USGS (Geological Service of the United States): in many cases the only available, in particular for some third world States.
Production data for Brazil, object of a specific close examination in the special Dossier annexed to the Report (in the light of a propensity for development of stone which stands at the highest Western level) are homogeneous with those of previous Reports, subject to a collateral indication of major quarried quantity relating to materials for structural use, referred to surveys of the Brazilian Association of stone industry (Abirochas). The special nature of the document is exhaustive with a series of exclusive detections about the international trade of technologies and capital goods, a comparison on the line of benchmark between medium prices of exported processed stones and the economic analysis of some competing products (ceramics and artificial stones).
The overall volume of processed products has been evaluated on the basis of surveys that conform to historical ones, with the same coefficients relating to loss of production, despite assuming a gradual increase in average productivity linked to the recent technology optimizations: given the inability to perform an official process, the option for the formula most appropriate in terms of comparability was confirmed, by iterating the traditional share of loss at the rate of two fifths of the sawmill charge, net of the respective raw international exchange.
The figures in quantities and values related to international traffic of the sector originate, according to competence and salvo exceptions, from statistical organization of the United Nations (Comtrade), and for the Europe of twenty-seven, Eurostat: in some cases, such as those relating to some Asian countries, with adjustments made necessary by the different calendar (concerning that, it is useful to add that the final balances of India, already from 2012, have been adjusted to the western system).
As in previous years, given the importance of Chinese role in the world stone, and the decisive level of its shares in production, interchange and consumption, the final balance sheet of the import and export of this country were verified, through the collaboration of the ICE Office in Beijing, with customs data coming from the local Government source. For this reason, in some cases of significant difference in the crossings of the interchange, the Chinese datum has been object of motivated preference.
We have to underline that, in the case of China, there were significant discrepancies with the data subject of intersection in the input-output model: this, in particular for the import of calcareous and siliceous raw, where the Chinese customs final balance was lower of about a quarter, which resulted in the need for a proportional increase of desk coordination. Since we have excluded that this phenomenon is attributable to errors of classification, it is not risky to presume the origin in accounting factors linked to the payment module of supplies.
The values must be considered as complementary, especially in long-term rating, while the quantity datum allows homogeneous comparisons and consequent strategic evaluations not influenced by exchange problems and extra charges.
On the basis of an established standard procedure, sometimes substantial volumes of current materials for structural use, that in some situations reach high levels but with a low unit value have been erased from handling flows, and from the same production estimates: once again, the most significant cases concern China, Croatia, Denmark, Indonesia, Malaysia, Norway, Pakistan, and with regard to the consumption, Netherlands, United Kingdom and Singapore, in addition to several African and Asian reality. Similarly, in surveys concerning Italy, unlike the standard procedure followed in other sources, the preference decided was to pay no consideration to the figures concerning the by-products (granules and powders), which especially in export have a strong quantitative importance but a marginal currency supply, as to final turnover.
The final balances of EU aggregates do not include Croatia, since its entry into the European Community took place on July 2013.
The standard model in the detection of the stone trade, more important because it affects the majority of the world turnover, remains, as in all previous Reports, the input-output system. Significant problems of processing, interpretation and data adjustment concerning the traditional four-digit codes (raw calcareous, raw siliceous, simple processed products, value-added products, processed slate) remain always: except as reported about Chinese raw imports, not uncommon in cases of appreciable tours, in line of historic homogeneity, the datum of greater reliability was considered as a natural priority.
In the original classifications of the finished product, and in some cases even of raw, like in those corresponding of India and South Africa, there are references with a not homogeneous character supported by average values: which made it possible to make the necessary corrections, on understanding that the overall figure of volumes traded by reference country. The phenomenon demanded some adjustments also in the cases, sometimes marginal, of large excursions from one year to another.
Not entirely negligible differences can exist in final value balances that refer to an interchange flows between an exporter and another importer country: in this regard, some cases are still detectable in Chinese raw import against the corresponding calcareous export from Turkey and Egypt, or the siliceous one from India and Brazil, on understanding the respect of the basic evolution trends as part of a growing trend. The main reason of these excursions can be referred to the customs different value or to lacks in the attribution of customs reference code. Confirming the greater comparative consistency of data in volume, in the case of value excursions among the leader countries correspondent data, which are mentioned in the texts and in the statistical documents, the original information was maintained unchanged, showing the difference.
The dossiers of greater sector countries, proposed at the end of the Report with the historical synthesis of the essential variables of production, interchange and consumption, conform to the model used in the previous volumes. Concerning that, the most significant abstraction involves, since the first report of 1990, sawing and processing wastes.
In the absence of reliable references, these wastes were hired in a unitary percentage share coming from historical experiences, resulting in an overstatement of the product in favour of the less developed countries where the share of waste is likely higher; that is, than some underestimation may be made in the case of those characterized by competitive levels of productivity or by the major presence of simple processed products, where the gap is lower. However, the matter involves contained excursions that do not invalidate the synthesis evaluation which emerges from the country files.
The use of input-output system for technologies, and in particular for machines, plants and capital goods, does not appear feasible, especially since in many countries the quantitative units have no homogeneous character, as they are related to the number of machines or tools rather than by weight. In any case, the number of monitored countries, including the supervision of those smaller ones, was the subject of an useful comparative enhancement in order to expand the survey also for these typologies. Given the safe stay of a significant Italian leadership in the stone-mechanical field, a new statistical information about its market share in sector advanced countries was introduced in the Report.
The contribution of third band countries having significant relevance but complementary, is reported globally in the traditional aggregate definition of “others”: this, by iterating the conventional increases applied to the subtotal of countries detected singularly in the input-output models. These increases, which had reached previously, salvo exceptions, three per cent of the same subtotal, have been reviewed in the light of the increasing handling among third countries: on the average, new rates have been elevated at five percent, except for slate, where the module applied in the previous Reports remained unchanged.
The monitored countries in the corresponding quantitative international exchange of 2013 are now 108, exceeding the previous maximum already acquired in the Report for 2012, with some important new entry in the third world, including Jordan, Palestine and Togo, on understanding the presence of all the leading protagonists, object of exhaustive detection both in the short and in the long run.
With regard to macro-economic data, it is finally useful point out that the balances concerning the gross domestic product were taken from information available at the time when the text was closed (half May 2014): therefore, the figures presented are subject to some variation, however marginal, compared with official correction made in latter times by the respective countries Governments, or competent economic institutions. As regards the organisational and legal issues of the work, mainly concerning the child labour in the quarries and the perspectives of sector international cooperation, also at associative level, given the lack of important innovative facts, are always valid the previous Reports.
Leading stone countries
As what was proposed in the previous editions of the Report, in the tables that follow we highlight, in relation to their historical twenty trends, the essential parameters of production, consumption and international exchange, with reference to the 24 leader Countries in extraction, distribution and user field. We are talking about dossiers with an easy approach and consultation also in comparative perspective, and at the same time, allowing the extrapolation of reliable assessments about the development potentialities and opportunities in each country.
The picture that emerges from this synthesis must be exhaustive, because referred to an aggregate of over four-fifths of the world stone production, while the volume of the corresponding exchange is even more significant.
This range of countries can be divided into three equally important sub-groups. The first concerns the leading States in stone quarrying: in order, China, India, Turkey, Brazil, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and France. The second are the countries with the most relevant volumes of consumption, with special reference to imported materials: always in the order of quantity, United States, South Korea, Germany, Taiwan, Japan and Canada. In the last one, there are nine other countries of considerable size of distribution or production: Australia, Belgium, Finland, Norway, Poland, Russia, Singapore and South Africa. Of course, this does not mean that other countries of various continents have a sector standard worthy of attention, both in a contemporary key, both in terms of development opportunity.
A comparative examination of the figures shows that the economic development in the medium and long term was more favourable in extra-European countries, with priority to Asian. However, even in realities characterized by recurring viscous phenomena, there has been a significant propensity to deal with critical situations, as happened more intensively in 2009, with appreciable reactive force, higher than in contiguous sectors of building materials.
Quarrying and processing productions are estimated on the basis of the criteria outlined in appendix, while the final balances of the interchange are generally official, with adjustments in the input-output, which we agree with. The final datum of each table, expressed either in units of weight or in conventional thickness surface (cm. 2) , concerns national whole consumption, with possible real losses in any country where the funerary art is superior than the average, as in the United Kingdom, in some Central European countries and in Japan.
Moreover, the allocation of these countries for continental macro-aggregates continues to offer a numerical prevalence of European ones, followed by seven Asian and three Americans, while the last three belong to the rest of the world. On the other hand, the first sector powers are now collocated in Asia, with an advantage which may be considered by now unattainable.
In the volumes of consumption we did not consider the current materials for structural use, which can fuel some important flows, not only in manufacturing, where they have rather generalized significance, because of the need to dispose of the second choices on internal markets, but also in the international exchange, whose references are given, as usually, in the text and in the critical appendix.
Acknowledgments
The Publisher feels a duty to thank all those who have contributed to this XXV Report, either in science or a promotional field. This, in particular with regard to the institutions from which most of the basic statistical information was obtained: on the one hand, the European Union, through its services of Eurostat, and on the other hand, the United Nations, through Comtrade. In this respect, particular thanks also competes with Abirochas, Brazilian Association of the stone sector, for provision of official data concerning the production of mining used in the dossier.
At an integrative level, useful information was borrowed from the International Monetary Fund, with regard to the macro-economic data, by Confindustria Marmo Macchine, and by specialized printing of category.
A very special thank must be reserved to Ente Fiere Verona and to its leading specialized stone and equipment trade fair Marmomacc, for the fundamental partnership, and for an yearly strong support in the exhaustive development and promotion of this Report.
Next to those reserved to the public moment and official institutions, no less important thanks must be expressed in the private context, and in particular, to companies that have significant attention to the relationship of sponsorship, witnessing the scientific appropriateness and functional research and caring for his systematic dissemination throughout the world with their customers and suppliers. This is the decisive support for the purposes of editorial continuity of an initiative which is, first of all, in terms of service.
Finally, non-formal thanks are due to the Author of the Report, since 25 years, for a long-term special competence in stone marketing, and for a long appreciation in human and civil values, typical of the stone.
Summary of the Report
In the stone industry, the economy situation triggered in 2009 by the crisis of big finance and industrial production decline, after the extraordinary crossing which was pursued in more productive highs during the following years, has found an additional positive balance in 2013, despite the pockets of stagnation, still remaining in some countries. In fact, both in quarrying and processing, both in the interchange and consumption, a further progress has been achieved in the world, allowing a further development, according to a growth trend over twenty years.
Marbles and stones, in fact, had already been distinguished for an expansion considerably higher than that of the world economy, and had suffered from the stagnation in a less wide extent than the average. The long-term final balances confirm it: looking back over the past ten years, the net production increased by about seven points in annual reason, and the global stone international exchange has grown on average by more than ten per cent.
In 2013, the volume quarried and that transformed in the world increased by about five points compared to the previous year, while the export and import volume, on the other hand, were increased by 2.8 percent in front of 2012, highlighting a greater proportional expansion of domestic markets.
Always during the last year, import and export of stone have balanced in more than 53 million tons: even in light of these figures, and their historical evolution, the sector final balance is competitive towards other similar and competitive sectors. Nevertheless, it must be said that the world of marble, granite and other stones could ascribe a new positive result thanks to Asian countries, responsible for more than 60 percent of production.
The whole sector production of 2013 amounted to 265 million tons at gross of losses for quarrying and processing waste and involved a consumption of 1.420 billion square meters equivalent, referring to conventional thickness of cm. 2. The per capita use, meanwhile, has risen to 226 square meters per thousand units, against 215 meters of the previous year, and 135 meters of 2003.
The most important role in the context of globalization was held once again by the international exchange: considering the contributions of raw and processed products, according to the above mentioned figures, the total input-output balances in more than 770 million square meters equivalent. It should be noted that the share of raw is further expanded, with 52.7 percent of the total, and highlighting the continuity of a strategic modification that, from several years, gives no preference to the finished product. The figures show another significant stone reality: an absolute majority of world consumption refers to the materials quarried and often processed in countries different from that of setting-up.
The top five manufacturers (in order: China, India, Turkey, Brazil, Italy) have expressed more than two-thirds of the world quarrying, and overcame more than a point the corresponding total share of 2012 and beyond twenty that of 1996. This confirms the historical trend to an increasing concentration, generally extended to processing and distribution phases. In particular, China, with about 40 million tons extracted from its quarries, has consolidated the primacy of production, but did not increase its share.
Prices, in the major markets were characterized by a good resistance, and in many cases by a remarkable growth. The same China, where the average price of the finished product has recorded a steady recovery from 2003 onwards, to show an important drop only in 2009, has reached the new maximum of 32.40 dollars per square meter exported, against 27.50 dollars of the previous year, not to say of the 24.30 dollars registered in 2011 and 13 dollars, obtained in 2003. The phenomenon, which is not entirely out of the dynamics of exchange rates, confirms that the advent of reasonable profitability strategies became applicant in third countries, while having to compare, at competitive prices, with the changing balance of supply and demand, but without compromising a large differential in front of the mature economies, particularly in Western Europe, where the average price of Italian processed product, with about 70 dollars per square meter, remains more than twice if compared with the Chinese one.
On the commodity level, 2013 saw a new recovery of siliceous product, although marginal, on understanding that the quantitative prevalence of calcareous, as its impact on global consumption, is around three-fifths of the total. The main target is always that of the building, with important shares for the urban external furniture and the funerary art.
About China, it should be added that its export volume, made up in very large prevalence of finished products, leaving to the blocks and raw slabs only some marginal shares, fell to 12.1 million tons, confirming the first drop of 2012, against an historical trend largely positive: the regression involved about 500 thousand tons, equal to four per cent. Chinese exports made up for four-fifths of finished products, confirmed priority positions and basically monopolistic in South Korea and in Japan, with notable presences also in the United States and in the European Union. Unlike the volume, the foreign turnover of Chinese shipments reached a new record with over 6.2 billion dollars and a growth of almost twenty points, against four percent of the previous year.
Concerning the leading stone countries, the final balance of Italy was basically stationary, with a marginal decrease in production and a recovery of exports in quantities, net from by-products, equal to one and a half point against the 3.9 percent ascribed in 2012; just a drop of more than 10 points compared to the historical peak of 2000. The decisive contribution came from the raw materials, whose Italian exports rose by a further two per cent, while that of finished products registered a marginal increase of 0.6 per cent, with a total share of their shipments that fell to 51.4 percent. This confirms the existence of permanent structural difficulties in processing time and a crisis of the added value that does not correspond to the development of world demand.
The Italian regional disaggregated data of export confirm the primacy of Veneto, with a foreign turnover of 493 million and 32.9 percent of the total value, but with a more pronounced recovery in Tuscany, which has reached 32.8 percent. In absolute figures, the most significant increases were achieved by Lombardy and Sicily, while a thoughtful balance sheet recorded also in the province of Trento (for porphyry), Lazio and Puglia.
A role fundamental in the stone macro-aggregate remains that of the satellite industries and in particular processing technologies (machines and capital goods). With regard to the plant, the 2013 ended with a global production estimated in about three million tons, object of interchange to the extent of two-thirds, and the confirmation of the Italian primacy in value exported, that reaches 68.2 per cent of the European one, and covers the absolute majority of the demand in several non-European countries of stone high importance such as Turkey, Brazil and Saudi Arabia.
Italian exports of machinery for marble and stone affected shipments for about 660 thousand tons with an annual turnover of over 700 million Euros and respective increases of 2.1 and 10.8 percent compared to 2012. The average value per product unit, however, rose to 1058 Euros per quintal against 974 of the previous year, ascribing an increase of about nine points, after the twenty points of the previous year, and the new maximum average price.
The balance of Italian technology is complemented by capital goods, among which abrasive and diamond tools excel, whose exports in value have resulted in a turnover of 269 million Euros, with an increase of 25 million compared to 2012, representing 10.2 per cent, which is added to the previous 4.3 per cent, and to the 5.9 percent which had been registered in 2011.
The international movement was characterised, as in the past, by a large and logistical prevalence of naval shipping. Anyway, was confirmed a good recovery of rail transports, both short-term and long-range (for example, in Chinese supplies of siliceous raw materials coming from Northern Europe), while the number of those on the road, complementary to the first two, has grown to an extent substantially proportional to raw and manufactured productions, with an estimate of about 48 million loads and unloads.
As to competing products, guided by the ceramics tiles and vitrified stoneware, their total availability in quantitative terms (9.5 billion square meters) exceeded by about seven times that of stone, without any appreciable changes with respect to the previous years, but stressing the permanence of considerable growth perspectives for marbles and stones, especially if supported by an adequate promotion policy able to optimise their use, still limited in per-capita reference despite some good impact initiatives such as the European Trade Mark of Quality and several Architectural Awards.
Anyway, it should be added that, in the long term, the use of marble and stone has grown to an extent greater than that of the ceramic sector, increasing from 12 percent in 2000 to about 15 current points.
The differentiated examination by countries shows that the development of stone world is governed by processes very changeable: if the major increases of quarrying and processing were obtained from China and other Asian producers, with regard overall to India, even in Europe there have been appreciable recoveries like those of sector activities, and first in the interchange, especially in the Mediterranean countries where the stone industry, although with certain sticky pockets, showed a specific suitability to elide the effects of the economic general conditions, that remain difficult.
Positive balance sheets were recorded also in Brazil, thanks to a strong policy of improvement for the local stone, with priority to granite, and their incisive distribution in American markets; and in Turkey, although its growth has been driven primarily by shipments of raw calcareous stones to the Chinese market (with a considerable prevalence of a sawn slabs if compared with blocks), while the recovery of Turkish exports of manufactured goods in the United States was relatively circumscribed, staying away from historical highs. Just like what happened in Italy, in Egypt and in other producing countries, the Turkish raw demand from China has increased so fast, affecting the policy of maximum added value, but allowing the country global exports reaching 8.3 million tons against the eight of the previous year, not to say of 7.2 million in 2011 and 1.5 million in 2002; and to consolidate the second place in the global ranking.
A case of enlightened conservative policy is that of South Africa, where chromatic characters of domestic granite, and those of international demand inclined to the acquisition of bright colours and renewed attention for marble and travertine, have been conjugated with the traditional strategy of enhancing quality and extracted volumes, whose main destinations, unlike elsewhere, continued to affect Europe and particularly Italy, with total export volumes declining sensitively, which followed a good increase of domestic consumption too.
The prices continue to be significantly different from one country to another, with an average export quotation which, in summary, range from 52 Euro/square meters in Italy to 22 in China (after conversion from dollars based on average exchange tax of the year). The general trend, as above mentioned, follows a more competitive profitability, within the space of an always more bright competitiveness.
Finally, we have to examine the development perspectives of the sector. In this regard, the production forecasts, even if they have prudential criteria arising from the extrapolation of historical series and from a predictable population growth, followed by the construction one, are favourable, so much so that in 2020 the volume of valuable stone quarried worldwide is expected to rise to about 170 million gross tons, with an use in the order of 1.9 billion square meters equivalent, while the quantity object of international exchange would be defined in connected proportion, and then, around one billion meters.
We have to assume that the trend of the world stone sector, overcoming the bottleneck caused by residual situations of stagnation, could recover a rate conforms to that of the long term; however, it is natural to provide higher problems of infrastructure availability, plant investment and waste placement, at all national and regional levels, and first of all, in a global perspective. These problems must be aboard considering the crucial role of investment, therefore of credit, and the need to upgrade them on business plan through appropriate incentives, all that either for the productive moment or for the communication and promotion, with particular attention to the issue of waste, whose difficulties in storage and environmental sustainability are creating some remarkable obstacles to the logic of development.
The stone industry has very high professional contents and the ability to create jobs with limited financial means: for over thirty years it was considered officially eligible to start expansion processes, also where other sectors are not able to express similar strategic and tactical skills. If nothing else, that is a good reason to remark that stone has the right to be a subject of conscious attention, both in third countries, where is an important opportunity to increase the added value and the gross national product, and in mature economies, where may involve many aggregates of great importance, as to the further economic and social development.
Italiano
English
Português